Sachs Media Group’s Breakthrough Research Division conducted a survey of 506 Leon County likely voters on Tuesday, September 27.

According to the survey, one week ago, Jackie Pons and Rocky Hanna were within the margin of error in vote share to serve as Leon County Superintendent. Today, Hanna has a 40-point lead (64% to 24%) among likely voters.

Respondents were selected at random through the Leon County Voter file to receive an email invitation to participate. The resulting sample is representative of Leon County voters by party registration, with an average margin of error of +/- 4.38% at the 95% confidence level.

Of those who are NOT planning to vote for Pons, 26% say that they had previously supported him but changed their vote based on having seen the negative TV ad or learning about it afterward. The ad was particularly impactful among Pons’ fellow Democrats, with 32% reporting that they had supported him prior to the negative TV ad but no longer do.

Among those who are aware of the negative TV ad but say that they still plan to vote for Pons, 54% say they didn’t like the ad but it doesn’t change their choice, and 29% say that it was truthful and fair game.

“Jackie Pons wildly miscalculated the impact this TV spot would have and ironically, instead of hurting Rocky Hanna’s candidacy, it may have killed Jackie Pons’ reelection,” said Ron Sachs, CEO of Sachs Media Group.

Who Won Monday’s Presidential Debate?

Finally, of Leon County Voters who watched Monday’s Presidential Debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, 65% think that Clinton won. This was the case for 87% of Democrats.

Among Republicans, 28% favored Trump and 24% favored Clinton, with 47% of GOP voters saying that neither candidate won. NPA voters favored Clinton in the debate (59%) to Trump (14%), with 28% unsure.